STOCK MARKET BLOG NOVEMBER 2024

by the CEO Silvano Grimaldi of the independent asset management company GRIMALDI & PARTNERS AG

MONTHLY REVIEW

The international stock markets ended the month of NOVEMBER mixed.

DRIVING FACTORS (especially for the US stock markets)

The so-called “ Trump Trade ”: the buying mood on the financial markets that arose after the election of Donald Trump as the future US president. This is primarily driven by the hope for tax cuts, deregulation and a growth-oriented economic policy .
Bitcoin Rise : As a clear supporter of cryptocurrencies, Trump's election has contributed to a record rise in Bitcoin.
Record highs on Wall Street : The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 reached new highs, creating additional investor confidence.

BURDENING FACTORS (especially for European stock markets)

Protectionist economic policy : Trump's announced protectionist measures could place a heavy burden on the export-oriented European economy.
More pessimistic economic outlook : Goldman Sachs has lowered its growth forecast for the Eurozone for 2025 from 1.1% to 0.8%.
Stronger US dollar : The rise of the dollar has led to a collapse of the euro, which may affect the competitiveness of European exports (negative medium-term currency effects due to higher import costs outweigh positive short-term effects).

STOCK IN FOCUS

ROCHE remains on growth course - burden factors are increasingly disappearing

Roche remains on a growth path after nine months. The Basel-based company therefore sees itself well on the way to achieving its own targets for the year as a whole.

Total sales rose by 2% to almost 45 billion Swiss francs. At constant exchange rates, the increase was 6%1.
The pharmaceutical division achieved sales of 34.3 billion Swiss francs, an increase of 3%.
The diagnostics division generated sales of 10.7 billion Swiss francs, which is the same as the previous year.

Strong demand was recorded for drugs such as Vabysmo, Phesgo, Ocrevus, Hemlibra and Polivy. These five products achieved combined sales of CHF 13.2 billion.

In the diagnostics division, there was good demand for immunodiagnostic products as well as solutions for pathology and molecular diagnostics.

Roche confirmed its outlook for the full year 2024 : sales growth in the mid-single-digit percentage range and core earnings per share growth in the high-single-digit percentage range are expected.

The burdens from biosimilars and lost Covid-19 sales are decreasing. CEO Thomas Schinecker explained that these effects were barely visible in the second and third quarters.

MONTHLY OUTLOOK

Opportunities

Falling inflation : Falling inflation allows central banks (especially the US Fed) to loosen their monetary policy.
Relative attractiveness: Falling bond yields make stocks more attractive in comparison.
Seasonality : The "Santa Claus rally" could drive the stock markets towards the end of the year.

Risks

Economic uncertainty : Growth risks remain a key concern for investors, particularly in Europe.
Geopolitical tensions : Conflicts in the Middle East could weigh on markets.
Weakness in China : Problems in the real estate sector and debt continue to cause some uncertainty.

For the month of DECEMBER we expect an upward trend (Christmas rally).

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